The consumption demand for welded pipes includes two parts: domestic downstream terminal consumption and export. In recent years, the proportion of exports in the total demand for welded pipes has remained at a level of 8%-12%. In the context of the slowdown in domestic economic growth, due to the slowing constraints of the weekly turn of funds, the consumption of downstream terminals of the welded pipe this year has shrunk significantly, but the export data has performed brightly, which has improved the supply and demand pattern of domestic supply to a certain extent. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the cumulative export volume of welding steel pipes from January to July was 2.9961 million tons, an increase of 22.46%year-on-year. The analysis shows that the obvious reasons for the export increase are mainly: First, the gradual recovery of overseas demand and certain demand for steel pipes. The second is that domestic demand is weak, while the price management continues to fall, and export competitiveness has improved.

Exporter: The Philippines exports the most, Tanzania and Vietnam have increased significantly year -on -year

From the perspective of the export trading country of steel pipes, steel pipe export countries are mainly concentrated in Asian countries such as Southeast Asia. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the cumulative export volume of TOP15 steel pipe export trade countries by July 2024 was 1.6476 million tons, accounting for 55%of the total steel pipe exports so far. From the perspective of exporting absolute values, the Philippine export volume is the highest. From January to July, the export volume of steel pipes was 233,300 tons. In the past two years, the demand for manufacturing in the Philippines has increased rapidly and demand for steel. From the perspective of the year-on-year changes, Tanzania and Vietnam's export volume increased the most significantly year-on-year, and from January to July, the year-on-year increase increased by more than 100%. Among them, Tanzania is one of the economies with faster economic growth in recent years. In the past five years, its GDP has been growing at a rate of about 6%, so the growth rate of steel pipes has been significantly increased. Vietnam's demand is mainly based on the mechanical manufacturing industry, and the demand for steel pipes has maintained a steady growth.

Export ：Export varieties are mainly pipeline pipes and other

The main export varieties of welded steel pipes include pipeline pipelines and ordinary welded pipes and square welded pipes with ≤10mm. From the perspective of analyzing the average export volume and export ratio, the total export proportion of these three varieties accounts for more than 85%. The ranking according to the export volume is: normal welding pipes with pipelines, square pipes, and outer diameters ≤10mm.

Export trend: export volume or relatively stable export volume in the second half of the year may be less than the first half of the year

From the perspective of the future export situation, in the context of limited domestic demand release space, it is estimated that the future export volume may remain steadily, but the increase or narrowing. From the analysis, from the perspective of the changes in the overall export volume, based on the stable economic growth of Southeast Asia in major exports, the demand for steel pipes is still stable, so the future export situation is still expected. However, from the perspective of changes, the export range has a narrowing trend. The main reasons are: First, the foreign economy is unstable, and the global manufacturing industry has a decline. In July 2024, the global manufacturing PMI was 48.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. the following. Global manufacturing demand has limited space, or the demand for steel pipes is restricted. The second is that the domestic demand season is about to enter, and the downstream terminal will start. At the same time, with the concentration of the special debt in September to October, the pressure of the end of the terminal funds in the later period will be alleviated. Driven by this, the domestic terminal demand will improve expectations in the later period, and domestic demand will increase or restrict exports to a certain extent. In summary, the estimates that the demand in the later period will still increase steadily, but from the perspective of the overall export volume, the export volume in the second half of the year may be less than the first half of the year, and the annual exports will increase year-on-year or 15%-18%.