Total output

Although the active layout of some leading enterprises in some welded pipes increases production capacity, its own production capacity utilization rate has not improved or even declined significantly. The operation of small and medium -sized enterprises is difficult to operate. After the Spring Festival resumption of work, it has been at a low level. As of July 5th, the MYSTEEL survey data shows that the total output of the 29 mainstream domestic sample pipes was 8.408 million tons, which was reduced by 12.57%compared with the output of 9.6172 million tons in the same period last year. Especially from the data of the end of June and early July, the output of the welded pipeline of the sample enterprise pipe factory is around 32-33 million tons, and the pipeline output situation of the pipe factory during the May 1st holiday has set a new low level after the Spring Festival.

Segmentation of species yield

As of July 5, the survey data showed that the total output of direct welding tubes in the 29 mainstream domestic sample management plants was 8.408 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 12.57%, and the total output of galvanized pipes was 6.355 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 13.12%.

In addition, since 2023, the yield of the variety of species has also followed the proportion of the decline in the proportion of the decline. The decline in welded pipes is relatively obvious; the proportion of high value -added products has increased significantly. Among them, the proportion of welding pipes in the galvanized circular tube increased from 44.5%in 2022 to 51.7%. The output of scaffolding and plate scaffolding is greatly affected by real estate downturn.

表1：2022-2023年细分品种产量变化情况（单位：万吨）

 

The profit of welded pipes and galvanized pipes has continued to decline this year. In 2023, the average annual profit of the welded pipeline was 38 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the profit of the galvanized pipe was 82.4 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 24 yuan/ton; as of July 10, the average profit of the welded pipe this year was 3.89 yuan/ton this year was 3.89 yuan/ton this year Compared with the same period last year, the average profit of the galvanized pipe was 20.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99.53 yuan/ton from the same period last year. In addition, the number of days of welded pipes and galvanized pipes increased by 21.38%and 25.19%year -on -year, respectively, and the overall deviation of business operating benefits. The price of zinc ingot this year has increased sharply in the context of overseas manufacturing recovery to start a new round of replenishment cycle, and the production cost of galvanized pipes has increased. In severe cases of profit squeezing, the production enthusiasm of welded pipe companies has declined significantly. It is reflected in the Spring Festival holiday and the May 1st long holiday. The manufacturer's production side holiday time is earlier than previous years, and the cycle is longer.

According to the statistics of MySTEEL's survey, 29 domestic mainstream sample management factories have been at a level below about 15%of the same period last year this year. There are not small pressures, so the management plant is mostly sold for sale this year, and strictly controls the inventory level near the warning line in order to maintain the dynamic balance of the production and sales data in the plant. Therefore, the relatively high level of inventory is also one of the important factors that restrict the release of domestic welded pipe output.

 

In the context of the downward cycle of the real estate industry, the demand for steel is particularly obvious. The welded pipe is an important part of building steel. For example, the galvanized pipe is mainly applied to the pipeline laying of pipelines at the end of the housing construction. Therefore, in recent years, the accumulation value of the completion area of ​​the house has declined at a low level, which will undoubtedly drag the demand for galvanized pipes. As of July 10, the total transaction volume of the 178 national trading enterprise welded pipes from the 178 national trading enterprises decreased by 26.91%year -on -year. The overall performance was weaker than the level of the same period last year, and the demand decision supply was the most intuitive underlying logic.

In the short term, the competitive pressure of the steel pipe industry is still severe, and the survival space of the small pipe factory continues to compress the survival space of the small pipe factory in the context of the supply of excess. Various uncertainty.

However, in the context of active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies in China, with the acceleration of local debt issuance, the demand for use of pipes after the implementation of the project funds will be promoted. It will be further accelerated, the steel structure and infrastructure field transformation, guardrails, water conservancy, power, oil and gas pipelines, thermal power and other fields will still be available. On the whole, the demand will occur in the second half of 2024, but structural changes will still occur in different varieties of steel pipes. The square tube may be stronger than the straight seam welding tube, and the infrastructure tube is better than the real estate pipe.

If the total output of the welded pipes in the second half of the year and even the whole year is roughly estimated, according to previous years of experience, because in the first and second quarters, the production capacity was often lower than the third and fourth quarters due to the Spring Festival and May Day holidays. The supply of welded pipes or a small increase in the semi -annual increase. The total output of welded pipes throughout the year was about 60 million tons, a decrease of 2.77%year -on -year, and the average capacity utilization rate was about 50.54%, a decrease of 2.75%year -on -year.